XRP's Market Echoes 2022: Glassnode Warns of Looming Sell Pressure
Recent analysis from Glassnode reveals a striking similarity between XRP's current market dynamics and those observed in February 2022. The on-chain analytics firm suggests that this resemblance could indicate significant overhead sell pressure around crucial price points, potentially testing the patience of existing holders.
Unpacking the Cost-Basis Quandary
Glassnode's core observation highlights a shift where newer XRP buyers are accumulating the asset at prices below the average cost basis of earlier investor cohorts, specifically those holding for 6 to 12 months. This "cost-basis configuration" creates an environment where a segment of mid-term holders could be "underwater." If XRP's price attempts a rally back to their acquisition levels, these investors might seize the opportunity to de-risk or break even, thereby generating substantial sell pressure that could cap further upside movement. The firm's "Realized Price by Age" chart visually reinforces this, showing a gap between short-term and longer-term cost bases, reminiscent of the consolidation phase in early 2022.
Historical Precedent and Current Implications
The $2 mark has been identified by Glassnode as a critical psychological resistance zone for Ripple holders. Historical data from early 2025 indicates that previous re-tests of this level resulted in significant weekly losses for many, suggesting a tendency for holders to exit positions at a loss when the price revisits this threshold. This behavior creates a substantial pool of "overhead liquidity" that must be absorbed before any sustained rally can occur. Looking back at February 2022, XRP experienced a volatile period, dipping to approximately $0.60 before a rapid surge to nearly $0.88. However, this rally was short-lived, as accelerating macro risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine invasion on February 24th, triggered a broader risk-off sentiment across the crypto market, pulling XRP back down. While XRP is currently trading around $1.9294 and remains above its 100-week Exponential Moving Average, the parallels to this historical period serve as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the potential for external factors and investor psychology to influence price action.
