XRP’s on-chain market structure is displaying striking similarities to conditions observed in early 2022, signaling a potential period of consolidation and underlying market tension. New data from Glassnode suggests a growing divergence between different cohorts of holders, creating a complex dynamic that could influence price action in the near term.
Diverging Holder Behavior Points to Distribution Stress
Analysis of XRP's on-chain metrics reveals that short-term investors are currently accumulating tokens at prices below the cost basis of longer-term holders. Specifically, wallets active for one week to one month are buying XRP at levels lower than the average acquisition cost of those holding for six to twelve months. This configuration, identified by Glassnode’s Realized Price by Age metric, historically indicates "distribution stress," where newer participants enter at reduced prices while earlier buyers remain underwater. Such a structure previously preceded a prolonged phase of consolidation and downside volatility in February 2022, as older holders faced increasing pressure to offload their positions near breakeven points, thereby limiting upward momentum.
Rising Supply in Loss and Fragile Price Action
Further supporting this interpretation, additional on-chain data highlights increasing stress among XRP holders. Glassnode’s Total Supply in Loss metric shows a steady rise in the amount of XRP held below cost basis, particularly after recent pullbacks. This growing supply in loss, currently around 26 billion tokens, historically correlates with weaker price performance and eroding holder confidence. Concurrently, the supply in profit has been declining, suggesting fewer tokens are held at comfortable margins. Despite recent short-term price rebounds, the 12-hour chart shows mixed directional momentum and weakening trend strength, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. XRP continues to trade well below previous highs, reinforcing the pressure on longer-term holders.
Outlook: A Structural Consolidation Phase
Collectively, the divergence in realized prices, the increase in supply held at a loss, and the muted trend strength suggest that XRP is entering a structural consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend reversal. While short-term accumulation might offer some near-term price support, sustained upside momentum would likely require XRP to reclaim older realized cost bases and significantly reduce the proportion of supply held at a loss. Until such conditions are met, the current market setup closely mirrors the early 2022 environment, where recovery proved slow and uneven despite intermittent rallies, indicating a period of vulnerability to volatility and capped upside.
