Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has issued a compelling warning about Bitcoin, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be overheating and vulnerable to a significant price correction. His analysis hinges on broader financial market indicators, particularly an unprecedented imbalance in the gold and oil markets, which historically signals trouble for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The Gold-Oil Disparity as a Warning Sign
McGlone points to a remarkable "gold-oil disparity" observed in 2025 as a critical red flag. During that year, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, surged by 65% to over $4,000 as investors sought protection against risk, inflation, and economic slowdowns. Concurrently, oil plummeted by 20% to around $60 per barrel due to weak market demand and oversupply issues. This 85% disparity between rising gold and falling crude oil was the largest ever recorded in a single year under such conditions, suggesting a widespread flight to safety. Historically, such a pronounced shift towards safe-haven assets has often preceded struggles for more speculative, risk-on assets, implying Bitcoin's current strength might be unsustainable.
Bitcoin's Overheating and Vulnerability
Drawing from this market imbalance, McGlone contends that prevailing conditions suggest assets are mispriced, making Bitcoin particularly vulnerable to a price decline. He argues that the cryptocurrency has overheated, a sentiment echoed by long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff, who has urged investors to sell their holdings before an impending crash. This warning comes as Bitcoin has seen significant volatility, peaking at over $126,000 in October 2025 before experiencing severe dips, struggling to maintain key psychological levels like $100,000, and plunging to lows of $84,000 recently. Furthermore, declining trading volumes and increased market supply from miners' sell-offs contribute to concerns about potential selling pressure, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin's current market position is precarious.
