Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door of the $100,000 mark, igniting excitement among crypto enthusiasts. However, a closer look at key technical indicators reveals a challenging landscape, suggesting that this significant price level might be less of a straightforward breakout point and more of a formidable resistance barrier.
A Confluence of Resistance
The 20-week moving average, which also serves as the middle of the Bollinger Bands, currently sits precisely at $100,000. While appearing as an obvious target for a breakout, Bitcoin has consistently struggled to breach this level since October. This ongoing battle is further complicated by increased volatility and surprisingly lower trading volumes, indicating a lack of strong conviction behind the recent price push. Adding to this cautionary outlook, two crucial weekly moving averages—the 23-week and the 50-week—are converging to form a potential "death cross" around this same six-figure threshold. This isn't a minor, short-term event but a rare, high-signal technical setup often associated with significant macro pivot points. Should this cross materialize, it could signal an extended period below the $100,000 mark, contrary to bullish expectations.
The Triple Threat
The daily chart unveils yet another layer of resistance: the 200-day moving average, positioned just above $99,000. This effectively creates a "triple-layer resistance wall" for Bitcoin, putting immense pressure on its price action. Historically, the initial attempt to overcome the Bollinger Bands' mid-band after a correction is often met with failure. Therefore, while many hope for a swift ascent towards targets like $107,000 or even $124,000, current trend lines suggest that any successful breakthrough would be an achievement against these strong technical headwinds, rather than a move supported by them.
