Powell's Defiant Stance Jolts Bitcoin, Exposing Retail Investor Fear Amid Bull Run
A rare and highly charged public statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has plunged Bitcoin into a fresh wave of volatility. Following reports of a criminal investigation into his conduct, Powell defiantly declared that the Fed sets rates based on public good, not presidential preferences. This unexpected political commentary immediately rattled the crypto market, sending Bitcoin tumbling from $92,500 to near $90,500 as traders grappled with heightened macro and political uncertainties. The incident breaks a year-long silence from Powell on criticisms, marking a significant shift in his public engagement.
Retail Investors Realize Losses Despite Upward Trend
Amidst this political turbulence, new analysis from CryptoQuant reveals a persistent underlying fear among retail investors. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR) indicates that many short-term holders are realizing losses, with the indicator dropping to around 0.98—a level last seen when Bitcoin traded at $16,000 in November 2022. Despite Bitcoin establishing higher highs and lows throughout 2024 and 2025, this sustained selling at a loss suggests a recurrent pattern of capitulation during corrective phases within a larger bull market. Historically, such divergence between rising prices and retail investor behavior often signals prime accumulation opportunities, underscoring Bitcoin's inherent structural strength.
Bitcoin Consolidates, Hinting at Future Volatility
Currently, Bitcoin finds itself in a consolidation phase, oscillating between the $90,000 and $94,000 range after a significant correction from its October highs. The $94,000 mark acts as a crucial short-term resistance, with buyers struggling to generate the momentum needed for a decisive breakout, despite defending lower price levels. While Bitcoin remains below its 50-week moving average (now dynamic resistance), its position above the upward-sloping 100-week moving average confirms that the broader macro trend remains robust. Notably, compressed trading volume suggests a period of market indecision that often precedes a significant expansion in volatility. The market's ability to reclaim the $94,000 resistance will be key to avoiding further consolidation before a sustainable upward trend can resume.
