Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has reignited his audacious forecast of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, anchoring his prediction to recent maneuvers by the U.S. White House concerning the housing market. Hayes interprets these actions as a clear signal that the administration is preparing to significantly expand liquidity, a move he believes will inevitably propel Bitcoin to unprecedented heights.
White House Moves to Inject Liquidity
The catalyst for Hayes's renewed bullish stance is the White House's directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to acquire $200 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). This initiative aims to reduce mortgage rates and monthly payments by narrowing the "spread" on mortgage bonds, ultimately making homeownership more accessible. With Fannie and Freddie possessing roughly $200 billion in available cash for these purchases, some market analysts view this as the White House effectively launching its own version of quantitative easing, signifying a readiness to "run it hot" regarding monetary policy.
The Million-Dollar Bitcoin Rationale
Hayes's $1 million Bitcoin prediction stems from a broader economic thesis that transcends the traditional four-year halving cycle. He argues that global central bank balance sheet expansion has become the dominant factor. With the U.S. national debt soaring past $38 trillion, Hayes contends that the government will increasingly rely on massive state-directed credit expansion to manage its burgeoning liabilities. Should Treasury yields experience a significant spike, he predicts an unparalleled deployment of the "money printer," dwarfing previous efforts. In such a scenario, the influx of liquidity and the resulting devaluation of fiat currency could, in Hayes's view, send Bitcoin spiraling toward the coveted million-dollar valuation.
