Bitcoin Set for "Boring Sideways" Action, Not a Major Crash, Says CryptoQuant CEO
The founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, offers a reassuring outlook for Bitcoin investors, predicting a period of "boring sideways" price movement rather than a catastrophic crash. Despite recent slowdowns in capital inflows, Young Ju believes that the current market dynamics are fundamentally different from previous bear cycles, mitigating the risk of a steep decline.
Realized Cap Signals and Market Evolution
Ki Young Ju points to the "Realized Cap" on-chain indicator, which tracks the total capital invested in Bitcoin by valuing each token at its last transaction price. After a period of robust growth between late 2023 and late 2025, signaling continuous capital injections, the Realized Cap has recently shown a slight net decline. Historically, such a trend might suggest an impending bearish phase. However, Young Ju emphasizes that new, diverse liquidity channels, particularly the rise of institutional holding through vehicles like spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and treasury companies, have fundamentally altered the market landscape. These new forces, he argues, have "killed the old whale-retail sell cycle," preventing the severe price drops seen in past cycles.
Retail Investor Demand Dips Amidst Stability
While institutional interest provides a buffer, data also indicates a waning demand from retail investors. CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn highlights that the 30-day percentage change in transaction volume from retail investors (transactions under $10,000) has been consistently negative, even following Bitcoin's recent price recovery. This suggests that the broader "crowd" has yet to re-engage with the market. Despite this, Young Ju maintains his prediction, reiterating that a significant crash of over 50% from its All-Time High (ATH) is unlikely. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $89,900, reflecting a 2% increase over the past seven days, underpinning the expectation of more stable, albeit unexciting, performance in the coming months.
