Bitcoin Struggles in High-Risk Zone as Short-Term Holders Face Mounting Pressure
Bitcoin's price action reveals a market teetering on a precipice, with the cryptocurrency struggling to hold the crucial $90,000 mark after a significant rejection from the $94,000 resistance. Market sentiment remains sharply divided, as analysts debate whether this downturn signifies a deeper corrective phase or a necessary reset before another ascent. The current volatility highlights an intense battle between buyers and sellers vying for short-term control.
Short-Term Holders Underwater, Bearish Trends Persist
According to an analysis by Axel Adler, Bitcoin's short-term risk structure appears fragile. The price is currently trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which is estimated near $100,200. This is compounded by the fact that BTC is also below all major moving averages—the 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day Simple Moving Averages—all of which are sloping downwards, reinforcing a broader bearish sentiment. At approximately $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a "moderate risk zone," precariously positioned between the STH Cost Basis and a potential 15% downside boundary. Further insights from Adler's analysis using the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) metric paint a clearer picture of investor behavior. The STH MVRV currently hovers around 0.92, significantly below its historical mean of 1.09 and the neutral level of 1.0. This implies that, on average, short-term investors are holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. Historically, such periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have often corresponded with accumulation phases or prolonged consolidation, rather than sustained bullish expansions. The last clear "euphoria zone" on this chart was observed way back in October 2025, underscoring the current market's distance from speculative extremes.
Price Recovery Lacks Conviction
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's recent recovery attempts have lacked fundamental structural strength. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 resistance, a decisive sell-off pushed the price back towards the $85,000 support level, where buyers temporarily intervened. However, the subsequent rebound has not been accompanied by the increasing volume necessary to confirm a robust shift in momentum. Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $90,000–$91,000 range, a former support now acting as a critical pivot. Both the 200-day and 365-day moving averages continue to act as dynamic resistance, capping any significant upside movements. The sequence of lower highs since the October peak indicates that sellers retain control of the macro trend. The relatively light participation during the current bounce suggests it might be more indicative of short-covering rather than genuine spot demand. For Bitcoin to escape this high-risk zone and signify a meaningful bullish shift, it must reclaim and firmly hold the $94,000–$95,000 resistance with substantial buying volume. Failure to do so could easily reopen the path back to the $85,000 support, compelling the market to once again test its underlying strength.
