Bitcoin finds itself at a crucial juncture, battling key resistance levels while a significant influx of sell-side liquidity floods the market. Analysts are eyeing a divergence between technical momentum and on-chain signals, hinting at a precarious path forward for the digital asset.
Bitcoin's Tightrope Walk: Technical Resistance Meets Bearish Inflows
Bitcoin has struggled to decisively breach the $94,000 mark, a critical short-term resistance. While recent buying efforts have pushed its price back into the $92,000-$94,000 supply zone after a rebound from $85,000, persistent selling pressure from this area continues to cap upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates growing bullish sentiment, suggesting improving short-term outlook, but on-chain data paints a starkly different picture. A recent CryptoQuant analysis reveals a significant inflow of assets onto centralized exchanges, signaling potential bearish activity. Over the past seven days, approximately $3.6 billion in Bitcoin and an additional $1.15 billion in Ethereum have moved to exchanges, amounting to nearly $4.75 billion in potential sell-side liquidity. This suggests that large holders or institutions might be positioning to distribute assets or establish short positions, rather than supporting a sustained price rally. This divergence between improving technical momentum and warning signals from on-chain indicators places Bitcoin at a pivotal moment.
Weekly Trends and the Path Ahead
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a consolidation phase following a sharp correction from the $120,000 region. Despite forming higher lows around the $85,000-$88,000 zone, indicating demand on dips, the price remains below the weekly 50-period moving average (mid-$90,000s), which now acts as dynamic resistance. While the long-term macro trend appears constructive with the 100-week moving average sloping upwards, the immediate future hinges on Bitcoin's ability to absorb the mounting supply. Failure to achieve a strong daily close above $94,000 could lead to a pullback towards the $85,000 Point of Control, whereas a decisive weekly close above the 50-week moving average would significantly improve the bullish outlook and increase the probability of a renewed push toward the $105,000-$110,000 area.
