Summary: Bitcoin’s dormant coins are mass-moving again: What it means for BTC

Bitcoin's Dormant Giants Awaken: Is the Rally in Peril? Bitcoin's long-term holders are stirring, initiating a significant distribution of dormant coins onto the market. Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a concerning surge in Bitcoin's Monthly CDD/Yearly CDD ratio to 0.25. This critical metric, observed within the $104,000 to $118,000 price range, echoes historical peaks. It's notably comparable to the distribution seen before the 2014 Mt. Gox crash and the 2019 post-rally correction. Such CDD spikes are a clear signal of active selling by experienced, long-term players. Further evidence of this increased distribution is found in the continuously negative Holder Net Position Change. It recently hit a low of -134.7k BTC, indicating more coins moving out of holder wallets than in. Concurrently, Bitcoin's Long Term Holder Supply has seen a substantial decline of 240,000 BTC, dropping from 14.12 million to 13.88 million. Historically, increased distribution from these "whales" has often preceded downward price pressure, posing a potential threat to the current rally. However, a compelling counter-narrative is emerging from the realm of institutional demand. Despite the notable selling by long-term holders, demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors remains remarkably high. Examining Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the total net inflow has consistently stayed positive, with few exceptions. Giants like IBIT, with $57.15 billion, and FBTC, with $12.33 billion, are leading the charge in this institutional accumulation. This sustained institutional appetite is acting as a powerful buffer, effectively absorbing the increased selling pressure. While this distribution has kept Bitcoin consolidated within the $115,000-$120,000 range, it's unlikely to halt the rally entirely. Instead, experts suggest it will primarily serve to slow its pace. Should the LTH selling pressure gradually subside, Bitcoin is poised to retest and potentially surpass its All-Time High. However, a continuation of the current distribution trend would likely lead to prolonged consolidation within the mentioned range.