Bitcoin's Quiet Recovery: Accumulation Phase Driven by Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Spree
Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate recovery, having reclaimed the crucial $90,000 mark. While cautious optimism pervades the market, on-chain data suggests this phase is characterized more by a dwindling supply from sellers rather than a surge in new buying interest, pointing towards a sustained accumulation regime.
The Nuance of On-Chain Dynamics
According to analyst Axel Adler, the On-Chain Pressure Oscillator, a key indicator aggregating exchange netflows, short-term holder profit/loss, and long-term coin spending, hovers around the 46 level. Historically, this zone signifies accumulation rather than distribution. A deeper dive into the market's internals reveals muted exchange inflows and dormant older coins, indicating that aggressive selling pressure is largely absent. Despite short-term holders experiencing pressure, their losses appear contained, limiting forced liquidations. This creates a deleveraged and relatively balanced market, where price stability is maintained by a lack of available supply rather than an overwhelming wave of demand.
Navigating Key Technical Levels
Bitcoin's recent rebound from December lows, around $82,000-$84,000, has brought its price near $94,000. While short-term momentum has been restored with the price reclaiming its short-term moving average, broader technical indicators remain constrained. Mid- and long-term moving averages, clustered between $100,000 and $105,000, present significant overhead resistance that bulls must overcome to establish a definitive bullish trend. Holding above the $90,000-$92,000 region is critical to sustain this constructive setup. A failure to defend this zone could expose Bitcoin to renewed downside risk, whereas a decisive break above the declining moving averages would signal a more durable shift in market direction, potentially unlocking new supply from short-term holders reaching breakeven.
