The future trajectory of Bitcoin's price is a constant subject of debate among investors and experts. A notable perspective, championed by mining magnate Frank Giustra, posits that a significant correction might be on the horizon, potentially offering a more attractive buying opportunity than current levels. This outlook largely hinges on the anticipated unwinding of corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings in the coming years.
The Bearish Case: Corporate Treasury Unwinds
Giustra's bearish thesis for 2026 centers on the vulnerabilities of public companies holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin in their treasuries. These firms, led by Strategy and collectively holding 4.9% of Bitcoin's total supply, face two primary risk factors that could trigger mass sell-offs. Firstly, a potential exclusion from the MSCI index by Q1 2026, predicted with a 75% probability, could force automatic redemptions and subsequent market dumps. Secondly, a sustained drop in mNAV (valuation multiples of crypto holdings relative to company assets) below 1 would compel these companies to either raise debt or liquidate BTC to boost their metrics, a concerning prospect given that most mNAVs are already trading at a discount.
Is the Risk Overblown? Counterarguments and Market Resilience
Despite these looming risks, not everyone agrees on the severity of their potential impact. Asset manager Grayscale, for instance, projects that these treasury firms are unlikely to become a major source of selling pressure in 2026. They highlight that key players like Strategy have built reserve funds specifically to avoid forced liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings. Moreover, market expectations for a massive dump by Strategy remain low, and there's an observable trend of mergers among distressed treasury firms, suggesting strategic consolidation rather than outright capitulation. While the prospect of a price dip remains, renowned trader Cryp Nuevo suggests that any correction might find a strong support level around $74,000, a price point historically aligned with Bitcoin's mining costs that have often halted previous major pullbacks.
