Bitcoin's short-term price action is still without bullish momentum, and according to macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg, the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating as well. Zeberg shared a strongly bearish assessment of the market’s current structure, concluding that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in a healthy expansion phase. Instead, he described Bitcoin as approaching an important peak, warning that the current structure carries an elevated risk of a sharp downside move once that peak is in place.
Bitcoin's Expanding Diagonal Points To Price Top
Zeberg's Bitcoin outlook is based on the expanding diagonal structure visible on Bitcoin’s monthly candlestick timeframe chart. This long-term pattern, which has been observed since Bitcoin's inception, illustrates increasing volatility, with the price forming higher highs and lower lows within a widening range. Interestingly, the chart projects a potential final surge as a "blow-off top" that could propel Bitcoin into the mid-$150,000 range. However, within Zeberg's framework, this final push is not a sign of strength but rather a characteristic marker of late-cycle overconfidence. Expanding diagonals typically resolve violently once the structure breaks, and Zeberg perceives the current market sentiment as peaking optimism just before an inevitable reversal.
From Euphoria To A Deep Crash Scenario
Zeberg's most controversial predictions revolve around his projected downside targets. He argues that once the final euphoric rally unfolds and Bitcoin surpasses $150,000, it could enter a collapse on a scale most Bitcoin investors currently deem unthinkable. He draws parallels to the dot-com era, where the Nasdaq experienced an over 80% decline, noting Bitcoin's historical tendency to amplify both upward and downward price movements. Based on this analysis, he foresees a scenario where a broader AI and crypto bubble unwinds, leading to a Bitcoin price crash of approximately 97% to 98% from its eventual peak. This translates to a technical minimum target between $3,000 and $4,000, with the possibility of even deeper declines. Furthermore, Zeberg highlights supporting momentum indicators, including a "massive bearish divergence" on the monthly timeframe (where price rises, but RSI fails to confirm new highs) and an impending bearish crossover on the monthly MACD, reinforcing his long-term bearish outlook.
