Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Halt Selling Spree, Signaling Potential Market Turn
On-chain data indicates a significant shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics as long-term holders (LTHs) have reportedly ceased their net selling activity. This development, confirmed by several on-chain commentators, could alleviate a major source of structural supply pressure that has been weighing on Bitcoin's price heading into 2026. The change marks a crucial inflection point, with implications for future market trends.
A Pivotal Shift in On-Chain Dynamics
The core of this market shift lies in the supply change metrics for long-term holders, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for over six months. On-chain analyst Darko highlighted that this metric, which had been consistently negative for months, has now turned modestly positive. Darko clarified that previous analyses suggesting LTHs were "selling more than ever" were potentially skewed by large, discrete exchange-related movements, specifically citing a nearly 800,000 BTC transfer from Coinbase. By isolating such distortions, a clear reversal in LTH supply change becomes apparent, indicating an end to the "distribution phase" that dominated much of the latter half of 2025. This means older coins are no longer being aggressively rotated into the market. Currently, approximately 10,700 BTC are transitioning into long-term held coins, a modest yet significant shift. This suggests that long-term holders have reduced their distribution, allowing their aggregate holdings to begin increasing again, even as short-term holders continue to retain their Bitcoin.
Experts Confirm and Historical Precedent
The observations from Darko are echoed by other prominent figures in the crypto space. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju succinctly affirmed that "Bitcoin long-term holders stopped selling." Matthew Sigel, head of digital research at VanEck, further characterized this as a "meaningful shift in positioning pressure," stating it eases a "major Bitcoin headwind" and concludes "the largest sell pressure event from this cohort since 2019." Adding historical context, expert James Van Straten noted the magnitude of this distribution reversal, comparing it to the market bottom of 2019. While not a guarantee of a repeat performance, it underscores the significance of the current market inflection. Darko also pointed out that historically, such shifts in LTH behavior have often preceded consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, though he emphasized that future trends depend on broader market evolution rather than certainty. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $88,623.
