Bitcoin is currently grappling to maintain its footing below the $90,000 threshold, reflecting a market fraught with skepticism despite weeks of consolidation. Analysts are debating whether the crypto giant is in a transitional phase or on the precipice of a more profound bearish period extending into 2026.
Decoding Bitcoin's "Supply in Profit" Signals
On-chain analyst Axel Adler highlights the crucial "Supply in Profit" metric, which has sharply declined from its October peak of over 19 million BTC to approximately 13.5 million BTC. This drop pushed the short-term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a significant gap. While this pattern preceded an extended bearish period in 2022, a key distinction this time is the historically elevated 365-day moving average. This suggests a potentially stabilizing bottom for the 30-day average, setting the stage for a renewed bullish phase in 2026, provided Bitcoin can sustain or elevate its current price levels.
The Path to a Bullish Cross: Key Price Points
Adler's forward-looking forecast suggests a bullish cross—where the 30-day Supply in Profit Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses above the 90-day SMA—could materialize between late February and early March. However, this projection remains highly price-sensitive; a mere 10% price drop could trigger a 13% decline in Supply in Profit, altering the forecast. The $70,000 mark emerges as a critical support level. A sustained drop below this point could invalidate the convergence thesis, potentially leading to a prolonged recovery reminiscent of the 2022 market downturn.
Navigating Current Market Resistance
Presently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. Attempts to push higher have met with significant supply pressure, indicating cautious buyer behavior rather than robust accumulation. The market is oscillating primarily between $85,000 and $90,000, underscoring a period of indecision. For bulls to decisively shift sentiment and overcome downside risks, reclaiming the $90,000 level is paramount. Until key moving averages are recaptured, the broader market structure suggests a continued range-bound or corrective price action.
