Unveiling Bitcoin's Next Move: Why the Market Isn't Ready for What's Coming

After experiencing an extended downtrend since its early October all-time high of $126,000 – losing over $40,000 to dip below $90,000 – Bitcoin has left many investors with negative sentiment and a reduced appetite for the cryptocurrency. However, as 2025 draws to a close, a prominent crypto analyst offers a starkly different perspective, suggesting that a significant breakout is on the horizon and most are ill-prepared for its arrival.

Why Bitcoin's Price Could Be Gearing Up for a Big Surge

Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Waterman contends that the current market pullback is a natural part of Bitcoin's typical cycle, rather than a definitive peak. Drawing parallels to past market behavior, Waterman highlights that both gold and silver reached new all-time highs in December 2025, while Bitcoin continued to underperform. Historically, these traditional assets often precede Bitcoin's own surges, implying that Bitcoin's major rally is still pending. Further supporting this contrarian view, the Coinbase app, a key indicator of retail interest, only peaked at Number 280 on the App Store when Bitcoin reached its $126,000 high in October. This is a far cry from previous cycles where the app climbed to the top spot before Bitcoin's ultimate price peak, signaling that true market euphoria has not yet been achieved.

Unpacking the Indicators: Why This Isn't the Market Top

Several other crucial metrics underscore Waterman's belief that Bitcoin's peak is yet to come. The altcoin market, for instance, has remained significantly depressed, with major alternative cryptocurrencies trading 60% to 80% below their all-time highs, indicating an absence of a widespread "altcoin season." Moreover, key sentiment indicators like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index failed to cross the 90-mark this cycle, suggesting a lack of the extreme euphoria typically seen at market tops. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score has stayed below 3, contrary to historical trends where it tends to surge above 6 before a cycle's conclusion. Given these insights, the analyst forecasts a staggered re-entry of investors: those who exited in early 2025 will return first, followed by 2024 leavers, then the 2021-2022 cohort. The definitive signal to exit the market, Waterman predicts, will be the influx of an entirely new wave of retail investors.