The traditional four-year cycle, long a cornerstone of Bitcoin's price movements and intrinsically linked to its halving events, is now at the heart of an intense debate among market analysts. This predictable pattern – an accumulation phase, a post-halving rally peaking around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market – is increasingly being questioned as new market dynamics emerge.
The End of an Era: New Drivers for Bitcoin
A growing number of experts contend that the once-reliable four-year cycle is fundamentally broken, replaced by a more mature and institutionally-driven market. Factors such as the influx of institutional capital via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), easing regulatory landscapes in the US, increased global liquidity, and a shift in Federal Reserve leadership are cited as powerful new forces. Analysts like Nick Ruck of LVRG Research foresee the cycle's demise, predicting an extended bull market into 2026 with reduced volatility. This sentiment is echoed by Grayscale and Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, who anticipate new all-time highs for Bitcoin by 2026, with some forecasting $150,000. Prominent figures including Cathie Wood and Arthur Hayes also firmly believe the traditional cycle is a relic of the past.
A Cycle Evolving or Steadfast?
Despite the strong arguments for a new paradigm, other analysts maintain that the four-year cycle, perhaps in an evolved form, remains firmly in play. They point to recent price action, including a significant drop from its peak and entry into a bearish phase, as consistent with historical post-halving patterns. Markus Thielen of 10x Research suggests Bitcoin entered a bear market in late 2025, aligning with a slowing economy. Similarly, "Rekt Capital" believes the cycle is intact but possibly "leveling up." Some attribute current selling pressure not to a broken cycle, but to "traumatized veterans" and "four-year cycle fans" anticipating a downturn. Analyst Alex Wacy posits that it's investor expectations, rather than the cycle itself, that are breaking, suggesting cycles might "stretch" rather than simply end. The divergence of opinions underscores a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's market evolution, where traditional models clash with unprecedented market forces.
