As 2025 drew to a close, Bitcoin found itself at a pivotal juncture, with market participants keenly watching its ability to reclaim a crucial price level that could dictate its trajectory into the new year. The cryptocurrency's price action tightened significantly, setting the stage for a high-stakes finale to a historically bullish post-halving year.
The Critical $93,400 Threshold
Bitcoin's immediate focus was on its yearly open of $93,400, a level that served as both a structural resistance and a psychological pivot for long-term sentiment. Historically, Bitcoin has never closed a post-halving year in the red, intensifying the pressure to push past this threshold. Reclaiming $93,400 has, in past cycles, signaled sustained upside momentum, while failure often led to temporary pullbacks rather than outright trend reversals.
Market Dynamics and Impending Volatility
Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin maintained a pattern of higher lows within an ascending channel on lower timeframes, indicative of controlled accumulation. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained elevated without being overbought, and MACD compression suggested an upcoming volatility expansion rather than exhaustion. This compression phase also saw aggressive leverage build-up on both sides; a 10% move could trigger billions in liquidations, highlighting the market's sensitivity to a decisive breakout.
Shifting Exchange Flows and Underlying Strength
Notably, Coinbase emerged as the largest Bitcoin seller over the preceding week, indicating increased institutional or U.S.-based distribution. However, this selling pressure was absorbed by the market, with Bitcoin successfully holding above the $90,000 support level. This demonstrated a robust underlying demand, suggesting that while the selling might cap immediate upside, it wasn't leading to a breakdown in market structure. Bitcoin’s ability to breach $93,400 will likely define whether it continues its anticipated post-halving surge or extends its current consolidation into early 2026.
