Bitcoin's Short-Term Holders Endure Prolonged Pain as Key Metrics Flash Red
Bitcoin's most reactive investors, its short-term holders (STHs), are navigating an exceptionally challenging period. As 2025's fourth quarter unfolds, key on-chain and technical indicators point to sustained bearish pressure, pushing this cohort through an unprecedented "patience test" amidst Bitcoin's underperformance.
STH MVRV in Deep Red for 60 Consecutive Days
Crypto market analyst Burak Kesmeci recently revealed a significant development regarding Bitcoin's short-term market dynamics: the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) metric has remained in "deep red" territory for an alarming 60 consecutive days. This metric serves as a crucial barometer, comparing Bitcoin's market value to its realized value to determine if short-term investors are, on average, in profit or loss. A reading below the neutral "1" level signals that STHs are collectively underwater. Kesmeci emphasized that this extended period marks the most severe "patience test" short-term investors have encountered throughout 2025. Historically, such prolonged negative MVRV readings often correlate with heightened market stress and can precede capitulation-driven sell-offs. Conversely, if bearish pressure completely dissipates during such a prolonged period, it could also surprisingly indicate imminent market stabilization.
Bitcoin Stays Beneath 111-Day SMA – What This Means for Price
Further reinforcing this cautious outlook, Kesmeci's analysis highlights that Bitcoin has consistently traded below its 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 111) during the same 60-day timeframe. This alignment between on-chain data and technical analysis paints a clear picture: Bitcoin is firmly entrenched in either a consolidatory or corrective phase. This observation directly contradicts any prevailing sentiment that the flagship cryptocurrency might be on the cusp of a significant upward trend. While the immediate future remains unclear, macro events and a potential resurgence in spot demand will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin further declines or begins its journey toward recovery from its current valuation of approximately $87,380.
