Bitcoin Primed for $45K Bottom: When the Next Cycle Downturn is Expected
As Bitcoin grapples below the psychological $90,000 mark during a holiday season that saw other assets flourish, analysts are pointing to a potential significant correction ahead. Recent market performance suggests that the world's leading cryptocurrency might be at the nascent stages of a bear market, setting the stage for its next cyclical bottom. Drawing insights from on-chain data and historical patterns, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alpractical, projects a clear timeline for Bitcoin's next major accumulation phase. Based on the "Repetition Fractal Cycle" chart, which illustrates recurring market behaviors across different scales, Wedson anticipates Bitcoin's next cycle bottom to form around early October 2026. This projection aligns with a broader downward movement where BTC's price could dip as low as $41,500.
Decoding the Fractal Cycle and Price Targets
The Repetition Fractal Cycle chart outlines a four-year cycle encompassing accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases. According to this model, the upcoming accumulation phase, which marks the end of the bear market, is expected to commence between October 6 and October 16, 2026. The predicted price target for Bitcoin at the onset of this accumulation period falls within the $41,500 to $45,000 range. This implies a potential fall of approximately 50% from current price levels, a correction notably less severe than the over 75% plunge witnessed during the 2022 bear market. Wedson emphasizes that while markets don't repeat identically, they often "rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency," suggesting this forecast serves as a fractional rhythm rather than a definitive prediction. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $87,500, showing minimal movement over the past 24 hours. This static behavior within a volatile market highlights the calm before what some analysts foresee as the next significant downturn, prompting investors to prepare for a potential retest of lower price levels based on historical cycle symmetry.
