Amidst a crypto market signaling a "risk-on" sentiment but lacking clear rotational flows, Ethereum (ETH) is demonstrating a unique resilience. While historical patterns often see capital remain Bitcoin-heavy, a key metric suggests that Ethereum's recent stability and dominance are not random, but rather the result of strategic maneuvers by its largest investors.
Whale Resilience and Accumulation
Ethereum's current consolidation around the $3,000 to $3,500 range is largely attributed to significant whale activity. These large holders are actively defending their $2,796 cost basis, which represents the realized price for long-term holders and has seen the price bounce off it multiple times. This whale-supported defense is also evident in Ethereum's dominance, which has steadily recovered from a late-November dip. Since November 21, Ethereum whales have amassed an impressive 4.8 million ETH, increasing their total holdings to 27.2 million and underscoring their strong conviction in the asset.
Leverage: A Growing Risk Factor
Despite sitting on approximately $4.8 billion in unrealized profits, the strong whale support for Ethereum comes with an elevated level of risk. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Ethereum has recently surged to a six-month high of 2.964. This metric indicates a substantial amount of borrowed exposure, with nearly $3 in borrowed capital for every $1 of ETH held without leverage. The combination of this high leverage, an absence of clear macro catalysts, and weak rotational flows across the market leaves Ethereum vulnerable to a potential de-leveraging event or a liquidation cascade, despite the staunch defense from its largest holders.
