Bitcoin's Next Major Move: Analyst Points to October 2026 Bottom
Prominent market analyst Ali Martinez has leveraged historical Bitcoin market cycles to offer a compelling long-term forecast, predicting a significant market bottom for the leading cryptocurrency in October 2026. This projection comes as Bitcoin navigates price movements below the $90,000 mark, with market sentiment hinting at a potential bear market.
Unpacking Bitcoin's Recurring Market Cycles
Martinez's analysis highlights a remarkably consistent pattern in Bitcoin's price trajectory. Historically, it takes approximately 1,064 days for Bitcoin to ascend from a market bottom to a peak, followed by a roughly 364-day correction period that culminates in the subsequent market bottom. This cyclical behavior has been observed twice before, forming clear precedents for current market conditions. The first instance saw Bitcoin bottoming in January 2015, surging to a peak in December 2017 (exactly 1,064 days later), before experiencing a 364-day bear market that concluded in December 2018. The pattern repeated with the second cycle, where a December 2018 bottom led to a November 2021 peak, again spanning 1,064 days, and was subsequently followed by a downtrend to a November 2022 bottom, with Bitcoin trading around $15,500.
Forecasting the Next Bitcoin Bottom
Applying these historical trends to the present, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin, having established a market bottom in November 2022 and recently hitting a peak above $126,000 in October, is now firmly within its 364-day correction phase. This implies a potential market bottom could materialize around October 2026, approximately 288 days from now. To arrive at a price target, Martinez analyzed the severity of previous bear markets. The 2017-2018 correction saw Bitcoin's value plummet by roughly 84%, while the 2021-2022 downturn resulted in a 77% retracement. Averaging these figures, he forecasts an approximate 80% correction from the current peak, placing Bitcoin's next significant bottom at roughly $37,500. Currently, Bitcoin trades just above the $88,290 mark, representing about a 30% drop from its recent peak.
