The Macro Conditions For Bitcoin In 2026: Analyst Breaks Them Down Macro trader @plur_daddy offers a compelling perspective on Bitcoin's potential trajectory for 2026, arguing that its performance will be less dependent on crypto-specific catalysts and more influenced by the normalization of U.S. liquidity conditions. Following an "unusually tight" period for risk assets, the analyst anticipates incremental shifts in the broader economic landscape that could transition markets from restrictive to neutral.
Liquidity and Fiscal Policy Reshaping Markets
A primary driver for future market conditions, according to plur_daddy, lies in the Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs). Since the December FOMC meeting, which announced $40 billion/month in RMPs for three months, liquidity has begun to flow into the system. While initial effects were offset by typical year-end liquidity adjustments from broker-dealers, this program is designed to alleviate funding pressures rather than instigate a speculative "risk-on" surge. It aims to restore a tighter environment to normalcy. Concurrently, the analyst projects a modest re-widening of the fiscal deficit, expecting an additional $12-15 billion per month starting January 1st due to OBBBA impacts, signifying an ongoing "fiscal dominance regime." He contends that this incremental fiscal expansion, even if insufficient to entirely reverse tariff impacts, is crucial compared to previous months.
Disinflation, Rate Cuts, and Political Influence
The prevailing disinflationary trend, underscored by falling market-based inflation expectations, is crafting what plur_daddy describes as a "goldilocks setup." A stable yet not overly weak economy, coupled with softer inflation, grants the Federal Reserve the necessary "air cover" to continue interest rate cuts. Despite market sentiment conservatively pricing in only two cuts for the year, the analyst's baseline expectation leans towards four cuts under orthodox policy, a number that could increase further in the event of a Trump presidency. Political dynamics are also highlighted as a significant factor, particularly concerning the appointment of the Fed Chair. Given former President Trump's perceived sense of betrayal by Jerome Powell, plur_daddy suggests that Kevin Hassett would be a "very likely" candidate for Fed Chair, a move that would notably benefit gold and, after initial adjustments, potentially lead to an upward trend in equities.
Bitcoin's Path Forward
The overall conclusion for Bitcoin, while cautious, is constructively directional should these macro elements align favorably. The analyst notes that "in theory, all of this should benefit it" but personally favors gold given the "drains on mental capital" involved in crypto trading. Nonetheless, he offers a pertinent timing indicator for bullish investors: "if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don’t be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve." At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at $87,053.
