Bitcoin's 2025 was widely anticipated as the year of the "supercycle," fueled by unprecedented institutional access and a favorable policy environment. However, the year concluded far differently than predicted, with the world's largest digital asset grappling with a performance problem and entering what analysts are describing as a prolonged "bear season" driven by a structural shortfall in demand.
The Unforeseen Bear Season of 2025
Despite hitting record highs, 2025 ultimately masked an underlying bear market, according to industry leaders like Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, who noted it was "masked by the relentless bid from DATs and Bitcoin Treasury Companies." The narrative began to unravel as key indicators signaled a significant shift: US spot Bitcoin ETFs transitioned from net accumulation to net redemptions, shedding approximately 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, while major buyers like Bitcoin treasury companies slowed their purchases. Data from CryptoQuant revealed that while prices peaked near $125,000 in October, demand growth had already slipped below its trend line. This suggests that much of the cycle's buying power was pulled forward into a compressed phase by the ETF launch and post-election positioning, rather than a broad, sustainable expansion in demand. Further corroborating this, Alphractal metrics showed falling search interest, Wikipedia page views, and social media activity returning to typical bear market levels, alongside the strongest selling pressure seen since 2022.
Challenging the Halving Thesis: Macro vs. Time
The persistence of selling pressure, even deep into the period where the 2024 halving was expected to deliver "up-only" momentum, has forced a fundamental re-evaluation of Bitcoin's market engine. CryptoQuant emphasized that Bitcoin's cyclical behavior is primarily governed by demand growth, not the halving event itself. This has led to two conflicting roadmaps for 2026 among strategists. Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor argues the traditional 4-year cycle is not about the halving but the "public debt refinancing cycle," suggesting the current "bear season" is a delay in the macro cycle due to debt maturity extensions. In contrast, Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer sees an "exhaustion of time," believing Bitcoin may have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase both in price and time, with the October high fitting the profile of a blow-off top. Timmer anticipates a "year off" for Bitcoin in 2026, targeting support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
Charting a Path to Recovery
Regardless of whether the market awaits Bittel's liquidity injection or endures Timmer's time-capitulation, the immediate reality is a failed marginal bid, necessitating structural repair rather than just a new narrative. Analysts point to four critical shifts required to signal a credible exit from bear territory. Firstly, ETF flows must stabilize and return to steady net buying to absorb distribution. Secondly, demand growth needs to reclaim its trend, indicating fresh incremental buying. Thirdly, a sustained recovery in perpetual funding rates would demonstrate renewed willingness among traders to hold long exposure. Finally, Bitcoin's price must reclaim and hold above its 365-day moving average, serving as the market's clearest confirmation of a shift back toward accumulation. Until these crucial signals turn green, Bitcoin is expected to remain in a challenging, maturing market environment.
