The crypto market is once again buzzing with the promise of "altseason," an anticipated period where alternative cryptocurrencies surge in value. Yet, despite widespread expectations, Bitcoin continues to hold firm dominance. While many look towards 2026 for a broad rally, a different perspective suggests that altcoin gains are a continuous, albeit selective, phenomenon rather than a singular event.
The Anticipation of 2026's Altseason
Historically, altcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021 have been followed by extended periods of underperformance relative to Bitcoin. Currently, altcoins find themselves near crucial long-term support levels against BTC, mirroring conditions seen before previous altseason phases. However, rather than an immediate breakout, market projections increasingly point to 2026 as the next significant window for a broad altcoin surge. This cautious outlook is reflected in Bitcoin's persistent dominance, hovering around 59.6%, and an altcoin season index at a low 35, indicating that capital remains largely concentrated in BTC. A true altseason, characterized by widespread outperformance, typically requires a decisive breakdown in Bitcoin dominance.
Arthur Hayes's Contrarian View: Altseason is Ongoing
Contrary to the popular waiting game, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a provocative alternative: altcoin season is not a singular event that "arrives," but rather a continuous process unfolding in specific corners of the market. Hayes argues that traders often feel they've missed altseason because they didn't hold the particular assets that experienced significant gains. He emphasizes that each cycle introduces new winners and narratives, warning against the expectation that past outperformers will necessarily repeat their success. From this viewpoint, altcoin gains are always occurring somewhere, highlighting the critical importance of identifying and participating in the right opportunities rather than anticipating a universal market-wide explosion.
