Despite the optimistic outlook surrounding the launch of U.S. spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), XRP continues to grapple with persistent selling pressure from large holders. Recent analysis highlights a significant divergence between the theoretical benefits of ETF interest and the observed price action, driven by strategic whale activity.
Whale Activity Undermining Rally Hopes
Analysis from CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA indicates that XRP is experiencing consistent selling pressure, primarily from large holders. Examining Binance Inflow-Value Band data, the study reveals that the majority of recent XRP inflows to exchanges originate from substantial holdings (100,000 to over 1 million XRP), rather than retail participants. These large inflows are typically interpreted as whales preparing to sell their tokens. Consequently, after each major inflow spike, XRP's price has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, signalling that supply continues to outweigh demand in the absence of strong new spot buyers. The analyst identifies key support zones at $1.82–$1.87, with a potential decline to $1.50–$1.66 if large inflows persist, suggesting that the current market structure is not conducive to a rally.
The ETF Paradox: Inflows vs. Price Action
Paradoxically, the broader XRP ETF landscape has shown impressive strength, with U.S. spot XRP ETFs recording 30 consecutive days of positive net inflows, a fact acknowledged by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Major issuers like Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Grayscale have successfully launched these funds, attracting significant capital and theoretically expected to drive institutional demand for XRP. However, the data suggests a different narrative: whales who accumulated XRP earlier, anticipating a price surge from the ETF narrative, appear to be using the heightened retail interest surrounding these approvals as an opportunity to sell their holdings. This strategic profit-taking is preventing a sustained bullish movement, making a significant rally unlikely until exchange inflows subside.
