Bitcoin's Market Shifts: New Whales Reshape Cost Base and Drive Demand
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin is moving beyond a typical cycle top or bottom, entering a distinct phase of market participation. This shift points to a significant recalibration of the cryptocurrency's cost base, largely influenced by a new wave of influential investors.
New Whales Rewrite the Network Cost Base
The landscape of Bitcoin ownership is undergoing a notable transformation. According to CryptoQuant figures, addresses categorized as "new whales" now command nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized cap—a dramatic increase from previous periods where their share rarely surpassed 22% prior to 2025. This metric, which tracks Bitcoin's value at its last movement, highlights that substantial new capital is entering the system at elevated price points, rather than simply existing holders shifting their positions. This sustained inflow at higher valuations suggests the network’s aggregate cost basis is fundamentally re-anchoring, signaling a profound change in market dynamics.
Short-Term Demand Surges Amidst Derivatives Risk
The market is currently experiencing intense short-term demand. Over a 30-day span, the supply held by short-term holders expanded by approximately 100,000 BTC, reaching an all-time high. This surge underscores significant buying interest at near-term levels. Exchange data further illustrates this trend, with roughly 37% of Bitcoin transferred to Binance originating from "whale-sized" wallets, defined as holdings between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. While Hyblock Capital reports positive cumulative volume delta (CVD) of $135 million for larger whale wallets (holding $100,000 to $10 million), retail wallets and mid-sized traders have logged negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million respectively. This indicates that larger market players are actively absorbing selling pressure, effectively offsetting reduced exposure from smaller participants. However, the derivatives market presents a cautionary note. Following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, open interest climbed at a faster pace than the spot price, and funding rates turned positive. This pattern points to the addition of margin-driven long positions rather than mere short covering. Such a dynamic increases the potential for volatile price reversals, even as underlying spot demand appears robust.
