XRP's Post-ETF Puzzle: Why Whale Activity Dampens Price Despite Launch

Despite the highly anticipated launch of spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, the price of XRP has struggled to maintain bullish momentum throughout 2025. What was expected to be a catalyst for institutional demand and higher prices has, paradoxically, coincided with a bearish downturn, prompting analysts to investigate the underlying market dynamics.

The Whale's Shadow: Supply Overwhelming Demand

On-chain analysis from CryptoQuant's PelinayPA reveals that significant XRP whale activity has been a primary factor behind the cryptocurrency's persistent price decline. These large holders have been moving their XRP to centralized exchanges, effectively increasing the available supply. This continuous influx, predominantly from cohorts holding 100K-1M and 1M+ XRP, has overwhelmed demand. This scenario prevents XRP from building a sustainable upward trend, even as many expected the ETF launch to absorb such supply and reduce bearish pressure.

ETF Catalyst or Whale Exit Strategy?

Unlike the robust institutional demand observed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, XRP's ETF debut has coincided with its price dropping nearly 50% from its all-time high, currently trading around $1.90 after a brief 3% jump. PelinayPA hypothesizes that whales strategically leveraged the heightened ETF anticipation to offload their holdings onto exchanges. This move provided liquidity for retail investors who were buying into the ETF launch news, essentially turning an expected bullish catalyst into a whale exit opportunity. This dynamic consistently generates selling pressure each time XRP approaches the $1.95 level. For XRP to achieve a sustained bullish run and avoid a potential fall to the $1.50 to $1.60 range, analysts emphasize that these whale-driven exchange inflows must cease.