Bitcoin's recent 30% decline, pushing its price below $90,000, has ignited a critical debate among analysts: is this merely a typical bull market pullback, or are we on the cusp of a full-blown bear market? Market indicators and on-chain data suggest that while the current stress is significant, key price levels will determine if the crypto asset enters a prolonged bearish regime.
Market Correction vs. Bear Market Indicators
The recent dip has challenged a crucial support level, leading some experts to adopt a mid-term bearish outlook. Pseudonymous analyst Jackis, however, views the current weakness as a "temporary pause on macro trend," suggesting that even a drop to $70,000 would still fall within a "macro range for 2025" rather than signaling a typical bear market. He posits this correction is driven by a shift in ownership from early holders to institutions, not fundamental or broader risk factors. Nevertheless, on the price charts, Bitcoin's sustained trading below its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a historical primary support for bull markets — raises concerns. A failure to reclaim this level, near $98,000-$100,000, could indeed imperil the bullish uptrend.
On-Chain Data Signals Further Risk
Echoing the warning from price action, on-chain data reinforces the proximity to bear market conditions. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), a metric indicating whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, is nearing a critical threshold of 1. Historically, dips below this mark have preceded bear market capitulations and marked subsequent market reversals. Furthermore, the Total Supply in Loss currently stands at approximately 7 million BTC—the highest this cycle—and is approaching the 8-10 million BTC range that characterized previous bearish regimes. Glassnode highlights that this pattern mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where escalating investor frustration often preceded more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices. Overall, the current market stress at the $88,000 level is palpable. A further price decline into the $60,000-$70,000 range, reinforced by historical price patterns and on-chain metrics, could trigger losses consistent with past bear market capitulations, thus formally ushering in a new bearish cycle.
