The U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill is navigating a treacherous political landscape, facing potential delays and intense opposition as it races against the clock towards the 2026 midterm elections. Its journey to becoming law is fraught with strategic maneuvering, industry lobbying, and fundamental disagreements that threaten to stall its progress.
Navigating the Political Landscape
Scott Johnsson, General Partner at Van Buren Capital, warns that Senate Democrats may intentionally prolong the bill's passage until late Q1 or even past the midterms. This strategic delay could be aimed at placating crypto lobbyists while simultaneously avoiding alienation of traditional banks and party leadership. Such a drawn-out process, however, risks placing the crypto sector's primary policy objectives in a precarious position, potentially leading to Democrats reneging on commitments if political pressure mounts. Despite these underlying concerns, a recent bipartisan meeting with the Senate Banking Committee, attended by crypto leaders including Coinbase executives, reportedly struck a "cautiously optimistic" tone regarding the bill's overall momentum.
Core Contentions and Industry Clashes
Several contentious issues continue to impede the bill's progress. Key among these are the oversight of decentralized finance (DeFi), the regulation of stablecoin rewards, and ethics concerns tied to presidential family crypto interests. Traditional financial powerhouses like Citadel Securities are actively advocating for robust DeFi regulation amidst the burgeoning tokenization trend, while the crypto industry seeks exemptions for DeFi platforms. Similarly, stablecoin interest loopholes have drawn fierce opposition from the banking lobby, which is vigorously pushing to block them through the market structure bill. This sets the stage for a substantial financial battle, with the banking lobby reportedly planning to spend over $100 million to elect pro-bank candidates, directly challenging the influence of crypto donations ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The Road Ahead: Legislative Prospects
The legislative path involves two main versions: the CLARITY Act, advanced from the House, and the Senate’s draft, known as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA). The RFIA is currently awaiting markup before advancing to a Senate floor vote, after which it would need House approval prior to a presidential signature. Despite the formidable political hurdles and the anticipated "messy fight" between traditional finance and crypto interests leading up to the 2026 elections, predictions indicate a 77% chance of the bill becoming law before 2027. This suggests a determined effort to push through this landmark legislation, even amidst profound partisan and industry divisions.
