A prominent strategist from Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, has issued a stark and potentially unsettling forecast for the cryptocurrency market. Drawing a direct historical parallel, McGlone suggests that the current trajectory of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index in 2025 eerily mirrors the Dow's path in 1929, signaling not a temporary pause but an impending "purge" that could redefine the market landscape for years to come.
Echoes of the Great Depression
McGlone's analysis presents a chilling comparison: the crypto market is tracking the same arc as U.S. equities did a century ago – characterized by a powerful run-up, expanding speculation, and now, a slow turn lower. He dismisses current debates about bubbles as typical near market highs, not bottoms, firmly positioning Bitcoin, with its strong link to broader risk markets, within this historical framework. According to McGlone, Bitcoin's post-2024 surge was like a "beach ball forced underwater," released from political pressure, leading to accelerated prices and excessive speculation. He now believes a "cleansing phase" is underway, with Bitcoin's modest 5% drop in 2025 potentially masking significant downside risk rather than confirming stability.
Dire Projections and Warning Signals
The strategist's concerns deepen when considering the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which plummeted roughly 40% in the current year to around 21. McGlone projects a path back toward 10 by 2026, a move historically associated with pressure on all risk assets. His most jarring prediction suggests that Bitcoin's ascent above $100,000 may have inadvertently set the stage for a protracted pullback, with a potential target of $10,000 by 2026. This outlook aligns with a broader anticipated downturn, particularly affecting high-supply speculative assets that lack tangible backing.
