Bitcoin has recently found itself in a period of price consolidation, struggling to establish a clear trend amidst conflicting market signals. Despite underlying activity from long-term holders, the cryptocurrency has faced persistent headwinds, preventing a decisive breakout from its current trading range.
Navigating a Consolidating Market
For the past month, Bitcoin has largely remained range-bound, consolidating below the $94,000 short-term resistance zone. Repeated attempts to breach this level have been met with swift pullbacks, sending prices back towards the $89,000-$90,000 range. While accumulator addresses have shown consistent activity in adding BTC to their holdings, this demand has proven insufficient to ignite a significant upward movement. Interestingly, some longer-term indicators offer a glimmer of hope, with global M2 liquidity reaching all-time highs, and Bitcoin positioned at a key on-chain support, as highlighted by the realized cap impulse metric, potentially setting the stage for a rebound in 2026.
The Persistent Demand Deficit
The primary hurdle for Bitcoin's immediate upward trajectory appears to be a notable lack of apparent demand. This crucial metric, which balances new demand against supply from both newly mined BTC and long-term holders, has registered negative since late November. This indicates that current buying pressure is simply not robust enough to overcome selling pressure. Compounding this challenge, on-chain data reveals a grim picture for short-term investors, specifically those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months. These holders have endured steady losses over the past two months, with a recent drop to $84,000 plunging their profit/loss margin to levels not seen since July 2022. This signals deep investor losses and pervasive bear market conditions. For Bitcoin to reclaim levels above $100,000, a substantial influx of new capital is indispensable—a force conspicuously absent from the market currently.
