Standard Chartered, a prominent multinational banking institution, has significantly recalibrated its outlook for Bitcoin, issuing a stark revision to its near-term and long-term price predictions. This adjustment signals a more cautious stance, moving away from previous bullish targets amidst evolving market dynamics.
A Sharper Outlook for Bitcoin's Price Trajectory
The bank has dramatically slashed its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast by half, bringing it down to $100,000 from an earlier projection of $200,000. This conservative shift extends to its long-term vision as well, with the $500,000 milestone now anticipated in 2030, a two-year delay from its initial 2028 target. These revisions reflect a critical re-evaluation of Bitcoin's growth potential and a recognition of a market currently experiencing slower momentum, with the cryptocurrency trading within a tight range near $90,000.
Understanding the Shifting Demand Landscape
According to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, the primary drivers for this downward revision stem from a fundamental reassessment of expected demand. A key factor is the "corporate treasury exhaustion," where the intense wave of corporate Bitcoin accumulation seen in 2024 has largely subsided, removing a significant source of market support. Concurrently, the anticipated robust institutional demand via Spot Bitcoin ETFs has failed to meet initial aggressive projections. Inflows have decelerated meaningfully, with quarterly ETF investments currently around a modest 50,000 coins – a stark contrast to the nearly 450,000 BTC acquired quarterly by corporate treasuries and ETFs combined in late 2024. This slowdown indicates that two of Bitcoin's most powerful demand engines are no longer operating at full capacity.
Redefining Bitcoin's Market Dynamics
Crucially, Standard Chartered's new forecast explicitly rejects the long-standing "halving cycle" as a primary price driver for Bitcoin. With the advent of substantial ETF buying, the bank posits that the historical boom-and-bust patterns and the logic of prices peaking 18 months post-halving are no longer valid in a maturing market. Instead, future price appreciation is expected to rely almost entirely on sustained ETF-related buying, signaling a new era where traditional crypto "winters" and severe downturns may become obsolete. The bank now expects a new all-time high to be achieved in the first half of 2026, further proving the irrelevance of the halving cycle model.
