Standard Chartered Halves 2026 Bitcoin Forecast, Citing ETF Influence
Standard Chartered has significantly revised its famously optimistic Bitcoin price predictions, cutting its 2026 target by a substantial 50%. The bank acknowledges that previous near-term projections were overly aggressive, recognizing a fundamental shift in how Bitcoin's market dynamics are now being driven. Despite this recalibration, the long-term outlook remains highly bullish.
ETFs Redefine Bitcoin's Market Cycle
According to a research note shared by VanEck's head of research, Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered asserts that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer the primary price driver. The bank attributes this change to the advent of ETF buying, which has introduced a new, powerful force into the market. Their analysis suggests that the historical pattern of price peaks occurring roughly 18 months post-halving is now obsolete. The report anticipates that Bitcoin will break its current all-time high of $126,000 (set on October 6, 2025) in the first half of 2026.
Revised Targets and Broadening Wall Street Consensus
In line with this updated framework, Standard Chartered has adjusted its multi-year Bitcoin price targets. The 2025 forecast has been lowered from $200,000 to $100,000, while the 2026 target dropped from $300,000 to $150,000. Subsequent years also saw adjustments, with 2027 revised to $225,000 (from $400,000), 2028 to $300,000 (from $500,000), and 2029 to $400,000 (from $500,000). Notably, the bank maintains a $500,000 target for 2030. This shift by Standard Chartered echoes similar sentiments from other major financial institutions. Just prior, Bernstein also concluded that Bitcoin's market structure has evolved beyond the traditional four-year halving pattern, entering an "elongated bull-cycle" fueled by sustained institutional buying. Bernstein, despite a recent 30% correction, observed less than 5% outflows via ETFs, reinforcing the idea that institutional interest provides a more stable foundation. They now project a 2026 Bitcoin price of $150,000, a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027, and a long-term target of approximately $1,000,000 by 2033. Both firms agree that ETF flows, institutional positioning, and balance-sheet dynamics are now the core variables dictating Bitcoin's trajectory. Bitcoin currently trades at $92,686.
