Bitcoin's Shifting Sands: Is the Bull Run Fading as Whales Sell Off and Retail Jumps In Late?
A prominent analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn suggests that Bitcoin's recent price weakness might signal a critical juncture, with long-term holders cashing out and retail investors entering the market at potentially unfavorable times. His detailed, 10-part "Bitcoin Market Analysis" dives into on-chain data, revealing patterns that could indicate a pause or even a reversal in the current bullish trend.
Whales Take Profits, Retail Chases Gains
The core of Maartunn's concern centers on the behavior of large, "Satoshi-era" wallets and broader long-term holders. A significant event highlighted is the movement of 80,000 BTC from a wallet dormant for nearly 14 years, sold via Galaxy Digital. This "whale bailing" suggests profit-taking from early adopters. Concurrently, Maartunn observes a classic "late-cycle enthusiasm" among retail investors, who have begun stepping in after Bitcoin's surge past $120,000 in mid-July. This influx of retail buying, however, follows a period where momentum has already waned, with prices now revolving around $113,000-$115,000.
Institutional Demand Wanes, ETF Outflows Mount
Despite notable corporate accumulation, such as MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 21,021 BTC and Metaplanet's addition of 463 BTC, these institutional inflows have not been sufficient to sustain Bitcoin around the ~$120,000 level. Adding to the bearish signals are increasing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. CoinShares reported its first net weekly outflow in 15 weeks, totaling -$223 million, with Bitcoin funds accounting for -$404 million. Daily tallies further indicate US spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding funds for several sessions, including a significant -$196 million on a recent Tuesday. This suggests that the institutional bid, previously a strong pillar of the bull run, is now softening at the margins.
Critical Support at $112K as Market Digests Supply
On the technical front, Bitcoin is currently finding support around its previous breakout zone near $112,000. Maartunn emphasizes this level as a critical confluence point between chart structure and on-chain price distribution, with a large volume of coins having last changed hands in the $108,000–$112,000 range, indicating strong underlying support. While the market has yet to decisively break down below a prior all-time high in this cycle, a sustained breach of the $112,000 mark would represent a significant shift in market behavior. The near-term trajectory will largely depend on whether this crucial support holds against continued selling pressure from profit-taking long-term holders, loss-realizing short-term holders, and persistent ETF redemptions.
