Bitcoin Navigates a "Mild" Bear Cycle Midpoint, Analyst Weighs Future Trends
Despite widespread anticipation for a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run this year, market expert Axel Adler suggests the leading cryptocurrency has actually reached the midpoint of a bear cycle. However, this current downturn appears notably milder compared to historical patterns, prompting crucial questions about what lies ahead for the digital asset.
Historical Context: A Milder Correction
Bitcoin has registered a modest year-to-date decline of 4%, yet has found stability, consolidating between $89,000 and $94,000 recently. Adler highlights that the current correction, standing at approximately -32% from its peak, is significantly less severe than previous bear markets. Historically, major bear cycles in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023 saw a much higher percentage of coins enter unrealized loss, often soaring to around 60%. In stark contrast, only about 12% of Bitcoin's total supply is currently at a loss, indicating a robust underlying holding pattern among investors.
The Road Ahead: Deeper Decline or "Flattened" Correction?
The critical juncture for Bitcoin now hinges on whether this correction will stabilize or deepen. Adler points out that recent local cycle peaks saw only about 17% of coins in the red, a figure three to four times lower than traditional capitulation levels. This unusual configuration suggests the market may be undergoing a correction within a larger "bullish supercycle" rather than signaling the final descent into a full-blown bear market. If Bitcoin successfully maintains its position above the -35% to -40% drawdown zone, supported by institutional demand and a structural supply deficit, it could solidify a "flattened" correction trend. Conversely, a breach beyond the -40% mark would significantly increase the probability of a classic bear market scenario, potentially leading to steeper declines in the -60% to -70% range and triggering broader capitulation in terms of unrealized losses. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, showing short-term gains of 5% to 9% over 24-hour and 14-day periods, respectively.
