Bitcoin's Bottom Is In: Top Analyst Miles Deutscher Assigns 91.5% Probability
Leading crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has made a striking assertion, declaring with 91.5% certainty that Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom. His bullish outlook, published on December 5, 2025, is underpinned by a comprehensive four-pillar analysis, suggesting a significant turning point in the market. Deutscher expressed his strong conviction, stating, "I'm 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside."
Market Resilience Amidst Negative Headlines
Deutscher's conviction begins with Bitcoin's remarkable price behavior in the face of overwhelmingly negative news. Despite a recent barrage of "bad news"—including renewed Tether FUD, persistent "China ban" narratives, scrutiny over MicroStrategy, and concerns about a Japan-driven yen carry trade unwind—Bitcoin's price has shown surprising resilience and rallied. This positive market reaction to destructive news is interpreted as a crucial indicator, echoing the trading adage that "the reaction to news is more important than the news itself." Further reinforcing this perspective, Deutscher's analysis delves into the historical pattern of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) events. He observes that, in every past instance, major FUD clusters related to entities like Tether, China bans, or MicroStrategy scrutiny have consistently coincided with local market bottoms. His internal AI model, which scores these pillars, assigned a perfect 28/28 to this historical correlation, highlighting a strong systemic link between widespread fear and subsequent market lows.
Shifting Flows and Macroeconomic Tailwinds
The third pillar of Deutscher's analysis focuses on market flows, which he identifies as the most critical factor reflecting net buy/sell pressure. For weeks, flows had been "aggressively negative," characterized by significant selling from large "OG whales" and Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) dumping their holdings. However, this dynamic has recently undergone a notable shift. ETF inflows are stabilizing and showing an uptick, treasury-company Bitcoin holdings remain stable, and the relentless dumping by whales has reportedly ceased. This positive reversal in market dynamics scored 22.5/25 in his model, although he cautions that "material risks" remain as long as derivative asset traders (DATs) exert short-term pressure. Lastly, the improving global liquidity and macroeconomic environment provide additional tailwinds. Deutscher notes that market liquidity, which had been tightening for months, is now shifting towards expansion. Global financial conditions have "reloosened to near highs," and significant macroeconomic developments, such as the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair and the official end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), further bolster a bullish case. This pillar received a 9/10 score, completing a compelling picture for a market turnaround. Aggregating all four pillars, Deutscher arrives at a final score of 91.5/100, strongly indicating that the market bottom for Bitcoin is now behind us. While he acknowledges potential caveats, such as a possible cooling off of US markets and the inherent volatility of ETF flows, his analysis suggests the odds are firmly in favor of the bottom being in, given the extreme FUD experienced and the market’s unexpectedly positive response. As of the article's publication date, Bitcoin was trading at $91,035.
