Bitcoin recently staged a notable comeback, pushing past the $90k mark, a move that has sparked renewed interest in its short-term trajectory and long-term potential. This resurgence is not merely a price point but is underpinned by a confluence of macroeconomic factors and crucial on-chain indicators, painting a complex picture for the cryptocurrency's future.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Derivative Momentum
The recent rebound in Bitcoin's value is significantly bolstered by shifts in the broader financial landscape. Expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, including potential rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening, are making 'risk-on' assets like Bitcoin increasingly appealing to investors. This macro environment could channel more capital into the crypto sector. Further fueling optimism, the Bitcoin Futures Market Power metric has flashed a 'bull signal' at 56.5. This composite indicator, which synthesizes Open Interest, funding rates, and taker imbalance, suggests growing derivative pressure favoring upward momentum, with a move above the 60-level anticipated as a strong bullish confirmation.
Spot Demand and the Underwater Holders
Beyond derivative markets, a surge in spot demand from U.S. investors is also supporting Bitcoin's current price action, evidenced by a sustained positive Coinbase Premium Index. This metric highlights a preference for BTC-USD pairs on U.S. exchanges, signaling active accumulation. Simultaneously, the generally subdued Coin Days Destroyed metric indicates that long-term holders are largely maintaining their positions, refraining from significant profit-taking, which often precedes local market tops. However, a significant caveat remains: approximately a quarter of the total Bitcoin supply is currently held at an unrealized loss, primarily by recent buyers. For a structural market shift and sustained upward trajectory, Bitcoin would need to decisively break past the $106.2k threshold, indicating a need for strong demand to lift these underwater positions into profit.
