Bitcoin Bull Score Index Signals Fading Momentum: Room For Downside?
Bitcoin finds itself at a crucial juncture, navigating increased volatility after failing to maintain its recent momentum above the $120,000 mark. The cryptocurrency is currently testing a critical support level at $112,000, a threshold that could determine its short-term trajectory amid weakening bullish sentiment.
Shifting Momentum and Indicator Warnings
The latest data from CryptoQuant, shared by its head of research, Julio Moreno, reveals a significant shift in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index. The index has moved from a "Bullish Cooldown" phase to a "Neutral" one, dropping from 70 to 50. This metric, which integrates trading flows, investor behavior, and derivatives data, indicates a notable weakening of bullish pressure, placing Bitcoin in a more balanced—yet precarious—state between buyers and sellers. Moreno emphasizes that further softening of this index would signal potential for even lower prices, making upcoming trading sessions pivotal.
Key Price Levels and Technical Outlook
Following a sharp decline from its all-time high near $123,217, Bitcoin is now trading around $112,837. Technically, BTC has fallen below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $116,158 and is currently testing the 100-day SMA at $111,224. This $111K–$116K range represents a vital defense line for bulls. A successful hold above the 100-day SMA could foster consolidation, potentially leading to a rebound towards $118K and a retest of the $123K resistance. Conversely, a decisive break below $111K could trigger a deeper correction, potentially pushing prices towards the 200-day SMA at $100,597, which many analysts consider a critical long-term support for this cycle's uptrend.
Broader Context and Future Implications
Despite the immediate cautionary signals, the overarching trend for Bitcoin remains constructive, rooted in a consistent uptrend since 2023 that has delivered substantial gains and pushed the asset to new all-time highs above $124K earlier this month. Many market observers believe this period marks the final, often more volatile, phase of the current bull run. As the month draws to a close, macroeconomic factors such as interest rate policies, institutional capital flows, and global liquidity conditions will play a significant role. Should Bitcoin successfully defend its current support and maintain strong fundamentals, this neutral phase might simply be a healthy pause before another leg up. However, if market weakness persists, it could herald the beginning of a more extended consolidation period.
