The highly anticipated November 29th token unlock for Hyperliquid's HYPE token was expected to unleash a torrent of selling pressure, casting a shadow over its impressive market performance. However, initial fears from prominent market voices appear to have been largely unfounded, as the event unfolded with surprisingly minimal impact.
Debunking Anticipated Selling Pressure
Contrary to widespread bearish predictions, Hyperliquid's recent HYPE token unlock saw a significant deviation from expected sell-offs. On-chain analysis revealed that only 23% (approximately 609,000 tokens) of the 1.75 million unlocked HYPE tokens were sold through OTC desks. A substantial portion, over 40% of the unlocked supply, was actively re-staked – 9% by individual wallets and a notable 33% by the Hyperlabs team. The remaining 35% was simply held by team members, indicating a strong preference for long-term commitment over immediate liquidation. This "hodling and re-staking" trend suggests that future unlock events might exert far less pressure than initially projected. The actual selling pressure from the unlock amounted to approximately $20 million, a stark contrast to the dire $500 million monthly selling pressure estimated by BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes. Hayes had projected a staggering $12 billion in selling pressure over 24 months, prompting him to divest most of his HYPE holdings. However, the recorded sell-off was a remarkable 96% lower than his forecast. Furthermore, Hyperliquid's robust monthly buyback program, maintaining a rate of around $82 million, proved highly effective, absorbing over four times the actual unlock selling pressure. This strong absorption capability meant the price only slipped a mere 1.7% on the day of the unlock, effectively rendering it a non-event.
Resilience and Renewed Whale Interest
Hyperliquid's foundational success as a transparent, fully on-chain DEX that mimicked a CEX experience, coupled with its lack of VC backing, shielded it from typical "VC dump" scenarios. This inherent resilience, combined with the surprisingly calm token unlock, appears to be attracting renewed attention. Recent data indicates significant whale activity at current price lows, suggesting a growing accumulation interest. Should broader market sentiment improve, this renewed confidence and accumulation could provide a strong catalyst for HYPE's recovery and continued growth.
