Aster (ASTER) finds itself at a pivotal juncture, with strong technical indicators hinting at a potential 30% price rally in December, yet facing significant headwinds from declining on-chain activity and an impending token unlock. Investors are closely watching to see if the altcoin can overcome fundamental challenges to achieve its anticipated surge.
Bullish Momentum Brewing
Despite a recent 5% dip and a generally sideways market, ASTER shows promising signs of accumulation. Technical analysis reveals the 4-hour chart has been ranging post-correction, with the On Balance Volume (OBV) mirroring patterns seen before its November 14th breakout, suggesting a similar move towards the $1.50 zone. The MACD also prints faintly green, indicating that buyers are beginning to enter the market, though not yet in full control. Furthermore, ASTER demonstrates resilience, with its daily trading volume increasing by 10% and outperforming competitors like Hyperliquid (HYPE) with a volume of $5.467 billion. These technical signals paint a hopeful picture for a significant price appreciation.
Navigating Headwinds: Bearish Pressures
However, the path to a 30% rally is fraught with considerable challenges. The overall hype around the decentralized exchange has waned, aligning with the broader crypto market sentiment. More concerning are the declining on-chain metrics: DEX and perpetual volumes are well below their September-November highs, daily fees have plummeted to approximately $1.18 million, and the Total Value Locked (TVL) has fallen dramatically by almost 50%, from $2.48 billion to $1.32 billion. Compounding these issues is a substantial token unlock scheduled for December, where 3.89% of ASTER's market cap, equivalent to 78.41 million tokens, will be released. This significant increase in supply poses a substantial risk of heightened sell pressure, potentially derailing any upward price movement fueled by technical strength.
