Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) is currently embroiled in a significant debate with global index provider MSCI, facing potential exclusion from its indexes. This classification dispute could have substantial financial implications for MSTR, sparking a firm rebuttal from both Michael Saylor himself and investment bank TD Cowen.
The Looming Index Exclusion and Financial Pressure
MSCI's review, which became public last week, suggests that MSTR, along with other public Bitcoin treasury firms, should be removed from its indexes. The global index provider argues that such firms are "passive" and act like investment funds, thereby not meeting the criteria for inclusion, which is reserved for operating companies. Should MSCI proceed with this removal, TD Cowen estimates that MSTR stock could face approximately $8 billion in selling pressure. This includes an estimated $2.5 billion from MSCI indexes and another $5.5 billion from other indexes that might follow MSCI's lead.
Strategy's Vigorous Defense
Both Michael Saylor and TD Cowen vehemently reject MSCI's classification. Saylor asserts that Strategy is unequivocally "not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company," highlighting its active $500 million software business and aggressive capital-raising efforts, including $21 billion raised in 2025 alone. He argues that passive entities cannot undertake such expansive operations. TD Cowen echoes this sentiment, contending that Strategy is clearly an operating company and even speculates whether MSCI's stance might reflect a bias against Bitcoin itself.
The Core Debate and Future Outlook
The crux of the matter lies in defining Strategy's operational nature: is it an active enterprise with a legitimate software business and growth strategies, or merely a passive vehicle for holding Bitcoin? Saylor's defiance underscores his conviction that index classification does not define Strategy's long-term commitment to Bitcoin. The investment community now awaits MSCI's final decision in mid-January 2026, which will determine whether Strategy remains within the index or faces the predicted selling pressure.
