The Hyperliquid (HYPE) ecosystem is currently abuzz with anticipation as the team has unstaked a substantial $316 million worth of HYPE tokens, equivalent to 10 million HYPE or 3.6% of the circulating supply. This move is in preparation for a significant token unlock scheduled for November 29th, intended to support founders and the development team. The event has ignited a spirited debate among market participants regarding its potential impact on HYPE's price, which currently stands at $31.4, down 47% from its all-time high.
Unpacking the Supply Overhang Concerns
The impending unlock is a major point of discussion, especially given the project's past FUD and its long-term tokenomics. Concerns are amplified by the revelation that Hyperliquid is slated to have monthly unlocks over the next 24 months. Crypto investor Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning, suggesting that even with ongoing buybacks, this consistent release could create a supply overhang exceeding $400 million, potentially outweighing the token's intrinsic value. Pseudonymous analyst Avseenko also noted a lack of strong spot market bidding, with most players either farming or shorting HYPE, contributing to a cautious sentiment.
Navigating Mixed Market Signals and Price Expectations
Despite the supply concerns, the market's outlook remains notably mixed. Options data indicates a significant volume of put activity at the $28 level, suggesting that large funds and players are hedging against a downside, but crucially, do not expect HYPE to drop below this point post-unlock. This level is viewed as a critical support, having acted as a breakout point during HYPE’s earlier explosive recovery. Further bolstering a more optimistic view, CoinGlass data shows "red net inflows" over the past seven days, signifying that more HYPE tokens are moving off exchanges into self-custody—a traditionally bullish indicator of accumulation. Analysts like Teng Yang echo this sentiment, projecting that while the team might sell tokens, the impact could be less severe than feared, possibly due to Over-The-Counter (OTC) deals or a slow drip approach, contrasting with typical VC unlocks. This confluence of bearish warnings and bullish accumulation points paints a picture of a market without a clear consensus on the unlock's ultimate price implications.
