Bitcoin's Sky-High Future: Arthur Hayes Predicts $15 Million Price Tag Amid Looming Policy Shift Influential macro commentator and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a striking forecast, suggesting Bitcoin could ascend to an astonishing $15 million per coin. This audacious prediction is rooted in his analysis of a potential seismic shift in US monetary policy, which he believes will favor unprecedented money creation, especially under a future Trump administration.
The Looming Fed Showdown and Aggressive Stimulus
Hayes argues that the long arc of US policy is bending towards massive liquidity injections. In a recent interview, he tied Bitcoin's trajectory to an anticipated political and institutional confrontation at the Federal Reserve. He posits that while current Fed Chair Jerome Powell might initially resist political pressure to maintain the central bank's independence, an aggressively inflationary policy mix is inevitable. This stance, particularly under a new administration inclined to "run it hot, inflationary," sets the stage for a scenario where traditional monetary controls are bypassed.
Weaponizing Stablecoins and Trillions in Flux
Central to Hayes's thesis is the strategic deployment of dollar stablecoins. He envisions a policy where trillions of dollars currently held offshore within the eurodollar system are pulled into on-chain, yield-bearing dollar stablecoins. These stablecoins would be backed by Treasury bills, effectively allowing the US Treasury to finance deficits by creating a "sink of tens of trillions of dollars," while marginalizing the Federal Reserve's control over front-end interest rates. Hayes estimates an addressable pool of $10-13 trillion from eurodollars alone, with additional contributions from foreign retail deposits. Geopolitical enforcement would involve restricting access to US financial rails or sanctioning foreign elites if local regulators resist this new framework.
Bullish Outlook for Crypto and Bitcoin's Enduring Value
The market impact of such policies, according to Hayes, would be "unambiguously bullish" for the cryptocurrency sector. On-chain dollars would pay modest yields, facilitating frictionless movement into basis-trade tokens and providing collateral across decentralized finance (DeFi). He emphasizes that Bitcoin, already "the best performing asset in human history" since its 2009 launch, still has immense growth potential, dismissing notions that latecomers have missed their chance. The $15 million price target, he explains, could materialize if a specific Fed appointee (referred to as "Zervos") takes office and implements immediate, substantial rate cuts of 300 basis points, signaling an era of significant money printing. Hayes himself remains a committed buyer, ready to capitalize on any market weakness if Powell fails to signal upcoming rate cuts.
