Despite recent landmark approvals for Franklin Templeton and Grayscale XRP Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on the NYSE—events typically expected to ignite price surges—Ripple (XRP) has experienced a puzzling downturn. Far from celebrating these milestones, XRP's price remains subdued, illustrating a critical disconnect between significant market developments and investor response.
The Conviction Crisis: On-Chain Weakness Persists
The core issue isn't a scarcity of positive catalysts but a profound lack of investor conviction. On-chain data paints a stark picture: rather than buying into positive news, holders are consistently selling. The share of XRP supply held in profit has plummeted to 57%, its lowest point since November 2024, when XRP was priced at $0.53. Furthermore, daily realized losses have surged to $75 million, a level not seen since April 2025, indicating that many investors are actively locking in losses. This suggests that the "HODL" narrative is weakening, and patience among the investor base is running thin.
Underperformance and Market Disconnect
Compared to other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which successfully reclaimed pre-crash highs, XRP is conspicuously underperforming both on-chain and technically. Its price has fallen below $2 and shows no signs of recovering to its July peak of $3.60. This widespread weakness implies that the issue extends beyond merely "bad timing" for the ETF launches. Even with a bullish broader market, the current ETFs would likely struggle to move XRP’s price, as the fundamental problem lies in fading belief in the asset's "undervaluation thesis" among investors. The much-anticipated "hype" surrounding the ETFs simply isn't translating into meaningful buying action, leaving XRP in a precarious position despite its increased institutional accessibility.
