Ethereum (ETH) is currently navigating a challenging market period, experiencing its most significant quarterly decline relative to Bitcoin since 2019, with November marking its sharpest monthly slide since 2018. Despite these apparent struggles, key indicators suggest a robust underlying conviction among holders, hinting at a potential year-end rebound mirroring historical patterns.
Despite Short-Term Struggles, Resilience Shines
While Ethereum's price has taken a considerable hit in Q4, with November accounting for 75% of these losses, historical analysis offers a different perspective. A comparable 42% quarterly slide in 2018 surprisingly preceded a 20% rebound for ETH in December, even as Bitcoin saw a slight dip. This historical precedent suggests that severe quarterly losses for Ethereum do not invariably lead to continued weakness, setting the stage for a potential turnaround. The current downturn appears to be more of a broad market "risk-off" event rather than a fundamental loss of faith in Ethereum itself.
Strong Conviction and Potential for a Rebound
Amidst this market turbulence, the long-term conviction in Ethereum remains remarkably strong. Ethereum's Total Value Staked (TVS) has reached a new all-time high of 36.27 million ETH, with a significant amount added just recently. This persistent growth in staking, despite price weakness, signals that long-term holders are firmly committed to their positions, demonstrating profound confidence in the asset's future. Furthermore, the ETH/BTC ratio, after several bearish months, has begun to stabilize above 0.03 in November. This stabilization, coupled with the notion that "weak hands" have been shaken out and leverage cleared, strengthens the thesis for a year-end ETH bounce against Bitcoin, potentially echoing its 2018 comeback.
