XRP has been grappling with a significant retracement, shedding 19% of its value since late October and leaving many recent buyers in a precarious position. Despite a falling NVT ratio hinting at the altcoin's undervaluation compared to its on-chain volume, the prevailing market sentiment across multiple timeframes indicates that bears currently hold the reins, dictating the asset's price trajectory.
Navigating the Weekly Horizon
Looking at the broader picture, the weekly chart for XRP reveals a complex interplay of bullish and bearish signals. While the overall swing structure remarkably remains bullish, marked by swing points at $0.486 and $3.4, and a crucial higher low at $1.61 that bears must breach to reverse the long-term trend, warning signs are emerging. The loss of the $78.6 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.28, coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping below the neutral 50-mark, underscores a dominant downward momentum, suggesting growing pressure from sellers.
Daily and Intra-day Pressures
The immediate outlook painted by the daily and 4-hour charts underscores XRP's current bearish struggle. On the daily chart, a clear bearish structure is in place, with the $2.7 area serving as a formidable supply zone and resistance. The pivotal level of $2.06 stands out; a daily close below this point would firmly confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. Similarly, the 4-hour chart highlights the $2.06-$2.15 zone as a critical "bullish fortress." For any hope of recovery, XRP must bounce from this region. Failure to hold, particularly a 4-hour close below $1.97, would signal further downside, potentially driving prices toward $1.9 and $1.61 and prompting a shift from bullish long positions to bearish short opportunities for traders.
