In a move that has ignited the cryptocurrency macro narrative, former President Donald Trump recently hinted at his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, signaling dissatisfaction with current chair Jerome Powell. These cryptic remarks swiftly impacted real-money prediction markets, with odds shifting dramatically in favor of Kevin Hassett as Powell's potential successor.
Trump's Signals Reshape Fed Chair Race
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump declared he "already knows my choice" for the next Fed Chair, adding a desire to "get the guy currently in there out right now." He teased a shortlist containing both "surprising names and standard names," suggesting a willingness to occasionally "go politically correct." This direct pressure on the Federal Reserve leadership, even from outside the White House, immediately reverberated through prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Contracts on "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" quickly converged on Kevin Hassett, whose odds surged into the mid-to-high 40s percent range, eclipsing other contenders.
A Bullish Tailwind for Crypto?
For macro-oriented crypto traders, the sudden rise of Kevin Hassett's prospects is perceived as a significant bullish signal. Hassett is widely considered more "dovish" than Powell, aligning with Trump's preference for easier financial conditions. Analysts like Jim Bianco highlighted this shift, noting, "He wants Bessent but will take Hassett." This indicates market participants are factoring in a potential Fed Chair more inclined to cut rates faster or tolerate looser monetary conditions, which typically favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Macro and crypto analyst Alex Krüger emphasized the Fed-chair race as the next "macro catalyst" for risk assets, suggesting that a dovish appointment would lessen market stress and provide a structural tailwind for speculative flows into Bitcoin and other digital assets. The rationale is clear: crypto assets, often acting as high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk assets, stand to benefit from a more accommodating monetary policy. Furthermore, Trump's overt politicization of U.S. monetary policy strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against political and institutional risks, appealing to a segment of allocators concerned about central bank independence. While no official changes have occurred at the Fed, the decisive shift in prediction markets underscores a brewing bullish sentiment among crypto traders, preparing for a potential leadership change that could usher in a more favorable liquidity environment. The total crypto market cap currently stands at $3.11 trillion, with market movements closely watched for further indications of this anticipated shift.
