Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations have sparked an intense debate among analysts and investors regarding its current market position. As the cryptocurrency navigates significant selling pressure, a key question emerges: is BTC nearing a definitive market bottom, or are further declines on the horizon?
Signs Pointing Towards a Market Bottom
Several on-chain metrics and historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could be approaching a market bottom, offering a high-risk, high-reward buying opportunity for some. Analysis of past price drawdowns reveals that previous market bottoms were often marked by retracements of 22-27% from highs, followed by substantial rallies. The current drawdown shows striking similarities. Additionally, the low Stablecoin Supply Ratio indicates significant purchasing power ready to enter the market, a bullish sign. The Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio, currently at 0.86, also aligns with readings from previous market bottoms (0.833 in August 2024 and 0.85 in April 2025) that preceded rallies to new all-time highs. Amidst this, recent rumors of Strategy selling BTC were debunked, with the company merely shuffling holdings for operational efficiency while continuing to accumulate.
Caution Amidst Bullish Hopes
Despite these encouraging signals, a strong counter-argument warns against premature optimism, suggesting a potential bear market. Key long-term metrics such as the 200-day and 111-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and the Short-Term Holder Realized Price have flipped from support to resistance, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics. The recent loss of the 365-day moving average and Bitcoin's decline below the $100,000 psychological threshold represent considerable blows to bullish sentiment. While aggressive investors might consider the current dip based on historical parallels, trend-followers are advised to await a clear reclaim of long-term averages before committing. The market remains volatile, presenting a high-risk, high-reward accumulation case where defining clear invalidation levels is crucial for those buying into weakness.
