Ethereum's recent rebound above the $3,000 mark has ignited a crucial debate among traders and analysts: does this signal a genuine recovery and a confirmed bottom, or is the market setting the stage for a classic bull trap? As speculative capital flows back into the asset, underlying technical patterns and whale behavior suggest caution.
Shifting Tides: Ethereum's Market Momentum
The current upturn in Ethereum's price is largely driven by a notable shift in market positioning and sentiment. Bitcoin dominance is experiencing rejection around the 60% level, while Ethereum's market share has impressively pushed back above 12% with consistent inflows. This indicates a strategic rotation of capital from Bitcoin into altcoins, where traders perceive ETH as a relatively less risky, or more opportunistic, play. Furthermore, derivative markets show a clear lean towards upside bets, with ETH/USDT perpetuals on Binance exhibiting over 70% long skew across multiple timeframes, and Ethereum's Open Interest surging by $2 billion in just 72 hours – a pace significantly outpacing Bitcoin's OI growth. These metrics collectively point to a strong speculative liquidity buildup and rotational flows favoring Ethereum.
Lingering Doubts: Technical Weakness and Capitulation
Despite the influx of speculative capital, deeper analysis reveals concerning signals that temper the optimism surrounding Ethereum's rebound. Technically, ETH has not managed a single V-shaped recovery since October, maintaining a bearish structure characterized by lower highs and lower lows. This lack of resilient bounce patterns raises questions about the sustainability of the current upward movement. Compounding these technical weaknesses, "smart money" continues to capitulate, with significant whale movements indicating loss realization – for instance, one whale recently moved 3,000 ETH back to an exchange, incurring a $6.92 million loss. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have predominantly seen capital outflows over the past two weeks, keeping distribution pressure high. These factors collectively suggest that the $3,000 level might mirror previous failed support attempts, leaving late long positions vulnerable to a potential bull trap.
